Third Party Therapy - David Warrick - From Xbox to Agentic AI: Building Supply Chains That Embrace Chaos

Mike Day is joined by David Warrick — a 23-year Microsoft veteran (including original Xbox project manager) and former Coca-Cola manufacturing engineer — for a wide-ranging conversation on what it actually takes to run a supply chain in a world where "normal" no longer exists.

David explains why the industry's decade-long obsession with "resilience" may be quietly limiting agility, why inventory buffering — once seen as a P&L sin — is back in fashion as a tariff hedge, and why 2020 was one of the most innovative years supply chain has ever had, simply because there was no other option. The conversation moves from the Ever Given's grounding in the Suez Canal (and the knock-on effects nobody was watching for) to the shift from static ERP snapshots to real-time, point-of-sale-driven planning, and on to the idea of agentic AI as a workforce in its own right — one that needs guardrails, not just guardrails around software.

Mike and David also dig into why these same principles apply well beyond physical goods — financial services, insurance, and any business built on supply and demand — and why hiring "industry insiders" can sometimes be the worst way to solve a problem.

Topics covered, in order:

• David's background — Coca-Cola, the Hong Kong airport build, Accenture and 23 years at Microsoft (Xbox, Nokia, Surface)
• How supply chain complexity has changed — from "simplify everything" to embracing volatility
• Why buffering inventory is back as a tariff hedge, after a decade of trying to kill it
• 2020 as one of supply chain's most innovative years — because there was no choice
• Why "resilience" can actually limit a supply chain's ability to grow and adapt
• Moving from "sense and respond" to "anticipate and act" using AI and predictive models
• The Ever Given, the Suez Canal, and the downstream bottlenecks nobody was watching for
• Multi-tier supply chain mapping vs understanding true industry-wide dependency risk
• Real-time point-of-sale data and the shift away from static, "point in time" ERP systems
• Federated inventory and dynamic order allocation
• Applying supply chain principles to financial services and other non-physical industries
• Agentic AI as a workforce, not just software — guardrails, accountability and trust
• Why hiring "industry insiders" isn't always the right call
• Common mistakes: sunk-cost thinking on legacy software, and "wait and see" paralysis on AI
• David's advice for building a resilient, nimble supply chain from scratch

Key quotes from David Warrick:

• "Never let a good crisis get in the way of innovation."
• "What we experience now is our new normal... it's a constant stream of grey swan events."
• "Supply chains are built to sense and respond, but the modern supply chain has to be able to anticipate and act."
• "Not every suggestion is a rip and replace."
• "This is not an if, it's a when conversation."

Guest: David Warrick, supply chain advisor and former Microsoft VP of Supply Chain (Europe, Middle East, Asia Pacific & Japan; original Xbox project manager; led Nokia integration and Surface manufacturing in China). Since retiring from Microsoft in 2022, he works with venture capital and private equity firms bringing startup technology into major corporate supply chains.

Third Party Therapy is a podcast about third-party risk, vendor management and supply chain resilience, produced in association with CeFPro. New episodes on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Audacy and YouTube.

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